Sunday, July 14, 2024

Political routes: Along the river

A map of Minnesota Legislature districts in the southern two-thirds of the state

Since most political coverage leaves everyone endlessly spinning these days, I felt I should give the route of the new Borealis service (a path shared by the Empire Builder) the same treatment that I did for my previous article state following the routes of Amtrak, Northstar, and the future Northern Lights Express northwest toward St. Cloud / Fargo and north to Duluth, in order to help pull focus away from the usual political centers of gravity. The Borealis has been an instant success, and proves there's strong latent demand for intercity train service that's more frequent and more reliable, enhancing the ability to connect above and beyond what a single daily long-distance route can offer.

It's worth looking southeast along the route to see if there are offices where we can grow support for more service like this. While local transit gets the most focus among urbanists and city planners, I think supporting intercity links is an essential next step for rebuilding a system where people can live a more car-lite lifestyle.

Services like the Empire Builder and Borealis help bridge the urban-rural divide by connecting cities large and small together, and let people travel who would otherwise be unable to. Rail lines bring in people from many different places and backgrounds, and really helps foster the sense that we're all in this together, rather than the everyone-for-themselves mentality of traffic-clogged freeways.

Unfortunately, we've seen decades of obstruction from the Republican side of the aisle in our region and at the national level, either actively undermining support for train service, or slow-walking things so much that it hardly makes a difference. Democratic politicians (Democratic-Farmer-Labor in Minnesota) are doing far more of the heavy lifting on that front at the moment.

The Republican wave of 2010 tore through hopes of building a whole set of 110-mph routes around the country, including the 6 to 8 daily round-trips that were planned along this corridor. Today, House Republicans are trying to cut Amtrak funding again, and wiping out funding for new transit projects is on their wishlist if they attain full control of government.

Here in Minnesota, it took a DFL trifecta of holding the governorship and both houses of the legislature before the Northern Lights Express and the long-planned Borealis (a bit of a consolation prize after 110-mph plans were shelved) finally gained funding. Republican obstruction of any meaningful funding means the Borealis was at least a dozen years overdue, and we'll still be waiting for the NLX for several more years.

There are certainly some conservative politicians out there who see investing and enhancing this long-standing rail infrastructure as the fiscally and environmentally responsible thing to do, especially when it has high latent but unused capacity, but there are far fewer of them than there should be. When combined with other policies that are sowing division and tearing down the nation's fundamental principles right now, I can't in good conscience lend support to that side of the aisle, so I'll again be focusing on DFL candidates below.

Due to time limitations, I'm focusing again on Minnesota and U.S. House races, but please also take time to investigate county, city council, and other local races where you can. Easily look up a sample ballot via the Secretary of State.

Minnesota House districts

From St. Paul southeast along the river to La Crescent, we have Minnesota House districts 65B, 67B, 53B, 41B, 58B, 20A, 20B, 26A, and 26B. The districts in St. Paul, the inner suburbs, and Winona lean Democratic, while others have most recently had Republican legislators.

DistrictCitiesCur. partyIncumbentPreferred candidate2022 margin
65B
St. Paul (station)
DFL
Maria Isa Pérez-Vega
Maria Isa Pérez-Vega
57.2%
67B¹
St. Paul
DFL
Jay Xiong
Jay Xiong
50.5%
53B¹
Newport,
South St. Paul,
Inver Grove Heights,
Cottage Grove
DFL
Rick Hansen
Rick Hansen
8.8% to 15.1%
41B¹
Cottage Grove,
Hastings
R
Shane Hudella²
Jen Fox
-2.1%
58B¹
Farmington,
Hampton,
Randolph
R
Pat Garofalo²
Ian English
-24.9%
20A
Red Wing (station),
Lake City,
Cannon Falls,
Wabasha
R
Pam Altendorf
Heather Arndt
-3.7% to -14.2%
20B¹
Kellogg,
St. Charles,
Pine Island,
Zumbrota
R
Steven Jacob
Michael Hutchinson
-32.3%
26A
Winona (station),
Lewiston
DFL
Gene Pelowski, Jr.²
Sarah Kruger /
Dwayne Voegeli³
10.2%
26B¹
La Crescent
R
Greg Davids
Allie Wolf⁴ /
Eric Leitzen
-89.4%

¹District is along the rail line, but does not have stations
²Incumbents are retiring in districts 41B, 58B, and 26A
³No endorsement occurred in district 26A
⁴Allie Wolf is the endorsed candidate in 26B

In the first three districts, the incumbent DFLers are running again. District 65B represented by Maria Isa Pérez-Vega is home to St. Paul Union Depot, which could really use more trains to make it a more bustling place. Rails run through district 67B represented by Jay Xiong, although the potential for improved train service there is limited since the population is away from the rail line itself. This area will probably only ever see new train stations if the Red Rock Corridor is ever properly revived. (Quick Red Rock take: Transit often works best where there's a geographic constraint in the way, like a big river, and it's easy to feel that limitation in the area when driving down U.S. 61).

Rick Hansen's opposition in 2022 included a third-party candidate, so the lean of district 53B is a little bit up in the air. Cottage Grove had been floated as a potential intercity rail stop when 110-mph service was being discussed up until 2010–2011, and the area has potential for multiple stops if commuter/regional rail services start up on the line. If you have resources, helping Hansen keep his seat would be a good move.

District 41B had a narrow margin in 2022, and the current office-holder is retiring, so it's worth throwing some support behind Jen Fox to try and get her into office. This district covers another part of Cottage Grove, plus Hastings (where Fox is on the city council) is also a very good potential new stop, whether from Amtrak or on a commuter/regional rail line

The next district down, 58B, is probably difficult to pick up, but I hope Ian English gets a good shot at it, since Pat Garofalo is retiring. As a reminder of how many people have been misled by promises of technology that has yet to arrive, Garofalo had boasted about Tesla's self-driving capabilities way back in 2015 and used that as a cudgel against funding for transit projects. Nine years later, self-driving still has a long way to go, with cars still stymied by rain, snow, fog, and oddly, trains. One person almost rammed into the side of a moving one recently when the car was self-driving, while another got their Tesla to serve briefly as a rail vehicle when it inadvertently veered onto tracks at a low-angle crossing. I found a third set of bizarre interactions when looking for links to those.

Only a small part of 58B runs along the current Amtrak route, without any towns to serve as stops. However, I'd love to see that district flip since it's an area that could benefit from future suburban Twin Cities stations if new ones are added on the Amtrak route, if the Zip Rail corridor down to Rochester ever resumes planning, or if the Dan Patch line or other services southward from the Twin Cities pick up steam, since the western part of the district wraps around Northfield.

Red Wing is the largest city in district 20A, and has one of the existing stations on the line. It had been looked at as an endpoint for Red Rock commuter rail, and is likely to remain a stop on any future Amtrak service. Lake City has grown to over 5,000 people and is a strong candidate for another stop on either Amtrak or a commuter/regional route, and Wabasha is a bit smaller but is an appealing potential stop since it has a bridge across the river to Wisconsin. A third-party candidate ran in 2022 who took 10.5% of the vote, so Heather Arndt has a good chance to win.

District 20B is much more rural than the others so far. Kellogg is the biggest city on the route in the district, but it has less than 500 people, and is only about 6 miles from Wabasha. Other parts of the district might have other opportunities someday. I'd love to see passenger service on the DM&E / CPKC line that runs from Winona through Rochester and westward, which runs the district's biggest city of St. Charles. If Zip Rail ever comes back, I'd love to see Pine Island or Zumbrota get some slower local service someday, though it's more likely people would need to go a bit outside the district to reach stations in cities just outside its boundaries if services manage to grow. Michael Hutchinson is up for a challenge to be able to win the seat, but it would be nice if that can happen.

District 26A is centered around Winona, which has a station, and is currently the only DFL-held district along the tracks outside of the Twin Cities. Due to candidates being unable to reach the 60% threshold needed for endorsement in the party caucuses earlier this year, Sarah Kruger and Dwayne Voegeli are facing each other in the primary election, and I don't know who specifically to root for there. Early voting and vote-by-mail is happening now, and election day is August 13th. Winona has been the 2nd-busiest Amtrak stop in Minnesota after St. Paul, and of course would benefit from more trains per day.

The last state House district here is District 26B, which is the most rural. There wasn't a DFL candidate in the district in 2022, so it's hard to say how exactly how strong the political leanings are. The largest city appears to be La Crescent, across the river from La Crosse, with about 5,300 people. It's included in the La Crosse bus system, so added Amtrak service directly helps residents there. The western part of the district is south of Rochester, so anything that ever reaches that city would be the nearest option for people there. Allie Wolf is the endorsed DFL candidate here, and is likely to win the primary, although I feel like Eric Leitzen has a more fully-fledged campaign platform, even if it's just a set of bullet points on a simple Wordpress blog.

A map of routes included in the 2010 Minnesota Rail Plan, which is well behind schedule. There have been some modifications made in later versions, but goals have remained similar overall.

U.S. House districts

The Amtrak route toward Chicago runs through U.S. House districts 4, 2, and 1.

DistrictCitiesCur. partyIncumbentPreferred candidate2022 margin
4
St. Paul (station),
Woodbury,
Maplewood,
Roseville,
Oakdale
DFL
Betty McCollum
Betty McCollum
35.3%
2
Lakeville,
Eagan,
Burnsville,
Cottage Grove,
Hastings
DFL
Angie Craig
Angie Craig /
Marc Ives
2.0 to 5.3%
1
Red Wing (station),
Winona (station),
Rochester,
Mankato,
Owatonna
R
Brad FinstadRachel Bohman-7.6% to -11.5%

Congressional District 4 includes St. Paul and a number of nearby suburbs. St. Paul Union Depot is a great resource, but it's deeply under-utilized, and should be a hub for many more trains. Betty McCollum is certain to win again, although I hope she's beginning to look at retiring to let someone new fill the seat in a few years, since she's been in office since 2001. It's a solid DFL district.

District 2 doesn't have any train stations, but has a number of opportunities if routes in the Minnesota State Rail Plan can get proper support to be studied and built in a timely manner. Additional service on the Amtrak route, southeast to Rochester, south toward Northfield/Owatonna/Des Moines, and southwest along the Mninesota River valley would all bring new stops to the region. Angie Craig is the endorsed candidate here, but I have to include Marc Ives as an option for the primary since he provides a relief valve for the angst around the Israel–Gaza war, and the utter lack of proportionality in response to the attack that set it off. But no, we would not be better off with either of her current Republican challengers in that seat, who both appear to be happier to punch down rather than up. This district is heavily targeted by outside groups, and will need support.

Finally, Rachel Bohman is running in the huge 1st Congressional District, which extends all the way across the southern end of the state to the border with South Dakota. It's home to the current Red Wing and Winona stations, and should someday have stations in Rochester, Owatonna, Mankato, and other cities along routes running south and southwest from the Twin Cities. This district has had similar geography through many election cycles, and has flipped between parties multiple times. Hopefully Rachel Bohman can gain the support she needs to flip it again.

Well, that's another one of these done. I wish I didn't have to write articles like this, but we're in a pretty dire situation if we don't have more people looking upward and forward to a better future. The Minnesota Department of Transportation funnels around $4.5 billion per year into streets, highways, and related activity, and support for rail—especially beyond the core of the Twin Cities—has been a faint shadow of that. Rebuilding the lost legacy of train travel that helped put cities on the map around here in the first place really should be on the path toward getting us out of our current divisive times.

Tuesday, July 9, 2024

Columbus update: Trains now using both tracks

The Amtrak station in Columbus, Wisconsin. From Wikimedia user Downspec, CC-BY-SA

We have a welcome update to my previous article about train conflicts around the Columbus, Wisconsin station. Over the weekend, photos and videos were captured of an eastbound Borealis train at Columbus station at the same time as a westbound Empire Builder, meaning that construction of new ADA-compliant platforms has progressed far enough for both tracks to be usable there. This is good news, as the two trains are scheduled to meet each other at or very close to the Columbus station.

Time vs. distance plot of trains in the corridor, showing the eastbound Empire Builder (first long line angling down and to the right) and westbound Borealis (first long line angling upward) cross each other near "CBS," the station in Columbus, WI.

The Borealis (no. 1333) is intended to depart Columbus at 1:41 pm, while the Empire Builder (no. 8) is scheduled for 1:47 pm. Ideally, they would pass each other slightly west of the station, but due to the track layout in the area, if only one set of rails is usable, the nearest point to the west where trains can pass is about 18 miles away in Wyocena, WI. In practice, it looks like it's been more common for the Borealis to wait at the nearest crossover point east of Columbus, which is about 6 miles away from the station.

I haven't been able to do enough analysis of train positions over time to say exactly how much this will improve on-time performance of the Borealis, since freight traffic west of Milwaukee station often adds delays as well, but if the Empire Builder was running on time, it could cause delays of 15 to 20 minutes for the other train.

Hopefully we'll start seeing better reliability for the westbound train soon, at least as long as they can depart Chicago and Milwaukee in a timely manner (yesterday's train had mechanical trouble meaning it left Chicago three hours late, which is the third time since service began that train 1333 had a delay of over two hours leaving Chicago).

Post from Bruce Schwierske in the "Amtrak's Borealis Train" Facebook group showing the two trains at Columbus station (link)

Monday, July 8, 2024

Borealis ridership increased in June 2024

A Borealis train taking on passengers at St. Paul Union Depot

Amtrak's Borealis posted a slight increase in ridership in June, going (with rounding) from 605 daily passengers for the first week and a half in May to 619 daily passengers last month, according to data obtained from WisDOT by the Wisconsin Association of Railroad Passengers (WisARP). Nearly all of the increase was in the eastbound direction, which went up by 13 daily riders, while westbound went up by 1 additional passenger per day.


1333 Westbound1340 EastboundBoth trains
MonthTotalDailyTotalDailyTotalDaily
May 2024 (11 days)3,622
329
3,028
275
6,650
605
June 2024 (30 days)9,906
330
8,651
288
18,557
619
YTD (41 days)13,528
330
11,679
285
25,207
615

Projected ridership before the start of service was all over the map, so it's difficult to say exactly how well it's doing—it's definitely doing well, it's just a matter of finding the most appropriate benchmark. There are approximately 300 seats per train, so at first blush, this would seem to be more than 100% utilization, although most passengers are only riding for part of the route, and trains averaged being about 50% full in May (1.3 million passenger-miles vs. 2.6 million seat-miles).

All Aboard Minnesota says that MnDOT expected 125,000 riders per year, and AAMN themselves had forecasted 155,000. Those are closer to Amtrak's feasibility report from 2015 which estimated 117,500 (option 4-A) and 155,000 (option 4-B) for two schedule options. Due to high estimated capital costs, neither of those were chosen, and a third "4-C" cost-optimized option was moved forward that used a schedule very similar to what the Borealis has today, though the study didn't provide any passenger count forecasts.


WestboundEastboundEst. ridership
Schedules
Dep. CHI
Arr. MSP
Dep. MSP
Arr. CHI
AnnualDaily
Option 4-A
9:25 am
4:42 pm
2:25 pm
9:54 pm
117,500
322
Option 4-B
9:25 am
4:42 pm
12:25 pm
7:57 pm
155,500
426
Option 4-C
10:15 am
N/A
11:46 am
N/A
N/A
N/A
MnDOT




125,000¹343
WisDOT




231,900
635
Borealis
11:05 am
6:29 pm
11:50 am
7:14 pm
224,475²615

¹Via All Aboard Minnesota
²Multiplying current year-to-date average of 615 daily riders by 365 days

So, with those numbers sitting in the back of my head, I was really shocked to see news articles with much higher figures, such as 232,000 in the Star Tribune. It took me a while to notice that the Wisconsin Department of Transportation put a figure of 231,900 on their website, which is presumably what the Star Tribune reporter used. The number also appeared in testimony to Congress last year (along with the briefly-floated Great River name for the train).

I'm not sure where that figure ultimately comes from, but since the Borealis ended up being an extension of a pair of Hiawatha trains (train 333 became 1333, and train 340 became 1340), it seems likely WisDOT or Amtrak either directly added estimates for the 2nd daily train to ridership for that pre-existing train pair, or used a model that incorporated both existing and new ridership, while the older estimates from 2015 may have ignored some of the existing riders.

As of April, Hiawatha trains had carried 381,000 riders across 2,797 trains so far in Amtrak's 2024 fiscal year, so the average for a single train was 136 riders, or 272 passengers for a pair of trains. So if the Borealis was running empty between St. Paul and Milwaukee, you'd expect to see right around 100,000 passengers for the year. But simply adding that to the older projections doesn't really line up properly, so there has probably been some newer modeling that I don't currently have access to.

Depending on which number you're looking at, the train is either massively beating projections, or within a few percentage points of where it was expected to be. I'm certainly glad it isn't massively below where it was expected, but these different numbers definitely create confusion.

Now the question is, how much farther can it go? That's really hard to say. Westbound trains are overselling seating, with around 15% more riders being carried than there are seats available, and eastbound trains have ridership that almost exactly matches the seat count. The average trip length is only around 200 miles, though, so the trains had an average load factor of about 50% in May.

Ridership could theoretically double, but that would require most new trips to be added west of Milwaukee, since it looks like around 40% of the seating gets used just for the existing Hiawatha base of ridership between Milwaukee and Chicago. Dealing with full trains on the busiest segment will be a challenge going forward.

While I hope rumors of a third daily train are actually meaningful and can happen sometime soon, the most immediate way to accommodate growth would be to add another car to the existing trains. Business-class seating appears to sell out quickly on the Borealis, so a full business-class car would be a nice addition.

But for now, travel demand is able to overflow to the Empire Builder if needed. I haven't yet seen a day where both trains are sold out, but we'll have to keep an eye out in case that starts happening.

Thursday, July 4, 2024

Be careful finding "profit" in Amtrak reports

Milwakee Business Journal.Amtrak's new Twin Cities-Chicago route through Milwaukee turns a profit in the first 11 days. By Alyxandra Sego - Web reporter, Minneapolis / St. Paul Business Journal
An unfortunately misleading headline from the Business Journal (link)

Revenues happily exceeded expenses on Amtrak's new Borealis service during the first 11 days of operation in May, but it would be more appropriate to call that excess revenue a "surplus" rather than "profit," like the Business Journal did in the screenshotted headline above. Very few Amtrak routes have ticket revenues that exceed operating expenses, and the Borealis is not among those lucky(-ish) exceptions.

On average, Amtrak's state-supported "corridor" routes like the Borealis are currently covering about 43% of their expenses through ticket fares, while long-distance routes do slightly better at 46%. Amtrak's Monthly Performance Report for May has very limited precision, rounding ridership to the hundreds and other figures to the nearest 100,000, but it appears the new trains had ticket sales cover about 60% of that very early operating cost: Operating expenses were $500,000, while revenues were $600,000, including $300,000 in fares (the train is unceremoniously listed on the last page as "St. Paul - Chicago").

Another $300,000 above and beyond ticket income magically appears in the train's revenue column, but where did that come from? Some of it may be café car sales, but the bulk of that is the state-level funding from Minnesota and Wisconsin to operate the train (which, for the first few years of operation, is mostly pass-through federal funding).

Amtrak route performance for May 2024, with the Borealis (St. Paul - Chicago) highlighted (PDF)

Fares for the Borealis start out at 10¢ per mile, or $41 for the whole 410-mile distance from St. Paul to Chicago, but climb as more passengers buy tickets. There's also a small 30-seat business-class section in the café car that has much higher fares. On average over the first 11 days, passengers paid about 23¢ per mile for their tickets, so many people were paying a substantial premium over the base fare, although that's less than the 27¢-per-mile average fare across all state-supported Amtrak routes so far this fiscal year. The approximately 11¢-per-mile subsidy is well below the current IRS deduction rate of 67¢ per mile.

The Wisconsin Association of Railroad Passengers also recently obtained ridership figures more precise than what's in Amtrak's monthly report, showing an average of 329 daily westbound passengers and 275 eastbound, for 604 total riders per day. The total for May was 6,650 riders across 22 train trips on 11 days. 38.5% of the ridership was in the Chicago–Milwaukee part of the corridor.

Prior to the start of service, the Wisconsin Department of Transportation said the line was projected to have 231,900 riders in the first year, an average of 635 per day, so the train reached 95% of the projected figure right out of the gate. Hopefully the ridership will inch upward as more people become aware of it and figure out how to fit it into their travel plans.

It's really difficult to draw hard conclusions from such early snapshots and the small numbers contained within. Expenses are probably a bit in flux, and it's hard to say how much of the early ridership and revenue came from people excited to try the train but who may or may not come back. But the train is off to a good start, and has a bright future as long as it has sustained support.